NI Public Consultation on the Fourth Carbon Budget (2038-2042)

Consultation on the Setting of Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget (2038-2042)

Northern Ireland is seeking public input on its Fourth Carbon Budget, covering the years 2038 to 2042. This consultation gives individuals, businesses, and organisations the opportunity to contribute to how ambitious this upcoming carbon budget should be, as the region continues its legal commitment to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Context: Northern Ireland’s Climate Commitments

In 2020, the Northern Ireland Assembly declared a climate emergency, and in 2022 passed the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022, which legally commits NI to reducing net emissions to:

• At least 48% by 2030,

• At least 77% by 2040, and

• 100% (net zero) by 2050, all compared to a 1990 baseline.

To meet these long-term goals, the Act requires the setting of five-year carbon budgets, which cap the total greenhouse gas emissions permitted over each period.

The first three carbon budgets have already been set:

• 2023–2027: Annual average of 33% below 1990 levels

• 2028–2032: Annual average of 48% below 1990 levels

• 2033–2037: Annual average of 62% below 1990 levels

The Fourth Carbon Budget: What’s Being Proposed?

The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), which provides independent advice to governments, has recommended that Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget (2038–2042) be set at an annual average reduction of 77% in emissions from 1990 levels.

This consultation seeks your feedback on that proposed percentage, as well as any evidence or rationale you believe should be considered when finalising the level.

Summary of the CCC’s advice

The actions that the CCC has suggested for NI to reduce carbon emissions include:

• Decarbonising electricity supply through greater renewable generation
• Supporting households to install low carbon heating
• Reducing energy demand and use in our buildings
• Expanding electric vehicle charging
• Replacing oil and gas with the electrification of key technologies in transport, building, and industry
• Incentivising farming practices that reduce emissions
• Restoring peatland and nature to increase natural carbon sequestration
• Carbon capture and storage19

What Is This Consultation About?

• This consultation is not about specific policies, technologies, or sectoral actions.

• Instead, it focuses only on the percentage reduction target for the 2038–2042 period.

• The policies to meet this target will be developed later and presented separately in a draft Climate Action Plan, which will undergo its own 16-week consultation closer to the start of that period.

Why Your Views Matter

Your input can shape Northern Ireland’s path to a cleaner, fairer future. The government wants to hear from:

• Citizens and community groups

• Industry stakeholders

• Environmental organisations

• Public bodies and local authorities

Your responses will help inform the regulations that formally set the Fourth Carbon Budget in legislation.

Timeline and Process

• The consultation is currently open and invites written submissions through the nidirect portal.

• An independent Climate Action Plan for 2038–2042 will be developed later and consulted on separately.

• The NI Executive will ultimately decide on which actions, programmes, and investments will be used to meet the budget.

Key Points from the CCC’s Advice

The CCC’s “Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway” outlines how emissions reductions could be delivered, including:

• Accelerating decarbonisation across energy, agriculture, transport, and buildings

• Enhancing carbon sequestration through land use and forestry

• Supporting behavioural change and public engagement

• Ensuring a just transition so that no communities are left behind

While the CCC provides a science-based path, NI ministers must decide on the policies that will work best in a local context.

What Comes Next?

Once the consultation closes and submissions are reviewed:

1. Draft Fourth Carbon Budget Regulations will be prepared.

2. These will be laid before the NI Assembly for approval.

3. Delivery strategies will be outlined in a Climate Action Plan (2038–2042), developed later.

How to Take Part

Visit the consultation page:
👉 NI Fourth Carbon Budget Consultation (2038–2042)

Provide your input on:

• Whether the 77% reduction is the right target

• Any evidence you want policymakers to consider

• How the budget could help ensure fairness and accountability

Deadline: 19th November 2025. See consultation website for submission deadlines and full documentation.

Final Thoughts

Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget will help define the pace and scale of its net-zero transition. While the specific actions will come later, this consultation is a crucial step to ensure the ambition of the targets matches the climate challenge ahead. Your voice can help shape Northern Ireland’s low-carbon future—now is the time to make it heard.